We present the results of a 10.5 yr , volume limited ( 28 Mpc ) search for supernova ( SN ) progenitor stars .
In doing so we compile all SNe discovered within this volume ( 132 , of which 27 % are type Ia ) and determine the relative rates of each sub-type from literature studies .
The core-collapse SNe break down into 59 % II-P and 29 % Ib/c , with the remainder being IIb ( 5 % ) , IIn ( 4 % ) and II-L ( 3 % ) .
There have been 20 II-P SNe with high quality optical or near-IR pre-explosion images that allow a meaningful search for the progenitor stars .
In five cases they are clearly red supergiants , one case is unconstrained , two fall on compact coeval star clusters and the other twelve have no progenitor detected .
We review and update all the available data for the host galaxies and SN environments ( distance , metallicity and extinction ) and determine masses and upper mass estimates for these 20 progenitor stars using the STARS stellar evolutionary code and a single consistent homogeneous method .
A maximum likelihood calculation suggests that the minimum stellar mass for a type II-P to form is m _ { min } = 8.5 ^ { +1 } _ { -1.5 } M _ { \odot } and the maximum mass for II-P progenitors is m _ { max } = 16.5 \pm 1.5 M _ { \odot } , assuming a Salpeter initial mass function holds for the progenitor population ( in the range \Gamma = -1.35 ^ { +0.3 } _ { -0.7 } ) .
The minimum mass is consistent with current estimates for the upper limit to white dwarf progenitor masses , but the maximum mass does not appear consistent with massive star populations in Local Group galaxies .
Red supergiants in the Local Group have masses up to 25M _ { \odot } and the minimum mass to produce a Wolf-Rayet star in single star evolution ( between solar and LMC metallicity ) is similarly 25-30M _ { \odot } .
The reason we have not detected any high mass red supergiant progenitors above 17M _ { \odot } is unclear , but we estimate that it is statistically significant at 2.4 \sigma confidence .
Two simple reasons for this could be that we have systematically underestimated the progenitor masses due to dust extinction or that stars between 17-25M _ { \odot } produce other kinds of SNe which are not II-P. We discuss these possibilities and find that neither provides a satisfactory solution .
We term this discrepancy the “ red supergiant problem ” and speculate that these stars could have core masses high enough to form black holes and SNe which are too faint to have been detected .
We compare the ^ { 56 } Ni masses ejected in the SNe to the progenitor mass estimates and find that low luminosity SNe with low ^ { 56 } Ni production are most likely to arise from explosions of low mass progenitors near the mass threshold that can produce a core-collapse .