Space weather is a matter of practical importance in our modern society .
Predictions of forecoming solar cycles mean amplitude and duration are currently being made based on flux-transport numerical models of the solar dynamo .
Interested in the forecast horizon of such studies , we quantify the predictability window of a representative , advection-dominated , flux-transport dynamo model by investigating its sensitivity to initial conditions and control parameters through a perturbation analysis .
We measure the rate associated with the exponential growth of an initial perturbation of the model trajectory , which yields a characteristic time scale known as the e -folding time \tau _ { e } .
The e -folding time is shown to decrease with the strength of the \alpha -effect , and to increase with the magnitude of the imposed meridional circulation .
Comparing the e -folding time with the solar cycle periodicity , we obtain an average estimate for \tau _ { e } equal to 2.76 solar cycle durations .
From a practical point of view , the perturbations analysed in this work can be interpreted as uncertainties affecting either the observations or the physical model itself .
After reviewing these , we discuss their implications for solar cycle prediction .