Using a refined setup process , we simulated the propagation of six observed Coronal Mass Ejections ( CMEs ) with the 2012 Block-Adaptive-Tree-Solarwind-Roe-Upwind-Scheme ( BATS-R-US ) code from the Sun to the Earth or STEREO A and compared the outputs with observations . A linear relation between the average CME speed below 6 solar radii and the flux rope current is demonstrated and used to tune the simulations . The simulations correctly predict if and when an observable CME shock reaches one astronomical unit ( AU ) . The arrival time predictions of the CME shocks at 1 AU have an accuracy of 0.9 \pm 1.9 hours .
The simulated initial CME speeds and average accelerations are close to the model and data of \citet Gopalswamy00 .
The approach shows promise for predicting the sense of the predominant shock-associated change in the magnetic field component B _ { z } . However , the magnetic fields and plasma conditions in the solar wind and CME are not predicted well quantitatively .